Linyang Energy丨Climate Risk Assessment and Financial Impact Analysis

January 08, 2026

江苏林洋能源股份有限公司

Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co., Ltd.

气候风险评估与财务影响分析

Climate Risk Assessment and Financial Impact Analysis

文件编号：LY-CL-002 版本：V1.0 生效日期：2026年1月8日

Document No.: LY-CL-002 Version: V1.0 Effective Date: January 8, 2026

一、目的与范围
1. Purpose and Scope

本文件说明江苏林洋能源股份有限公司（以下简称“公司”）开展气候情景分析的流程、情景设定与主要结果，并针对识别出的最重大法规变化风险与最重大物理风险，披露其财务影响、影响时间范围与应对成本。分析遵循气候相关财务信息披露工作组（TCFD）框架的四要素结构，并参考国际财务报告可持续披露准则第 S2 号（IFRS S2）的要求。

This document sets out the process, scenario design and principal results of the climate scenario analysis conducted by Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co., Ltd. (the “Company”), and discloses the financial impact, time horizon and adaptation cost of the most significant regulatory change risk and the most significant physical risk identified. The analysis follows the four-pillar structure of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and makes reference to IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures.

分析边界为公司及合并报表范围内子公司，覆盖智能配用电、储能、新能源三大业务板块；分析对象包括自有生产基地（江苏启东、南通、河北平泉，安徽五河，以及印尼海外基地）与自持及运维的新能源电站。

The boundary is the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries, covering the three business segments of smart power distribution and consumption, energy storage and new energy. The scope includes Company-operated manufacturing bases (Qidong, Nantong, Pingquan in Hebei, Wuhe in Anhui, as well as overseas bases in Indonesia) and the new energy power stations owned and serviced by the Company.

二、气候情景分析流程
2. Climate Scenario Analysis Process

公司每年开展一次气候情景分析，流程分为六个步骤，由安全环保部牵头，战略规划部、财务部、各业务板块共同参与，分析结果提交董事会战略与可持续发展委员会审议。

The Company conducts a climate scenario analysis annually through a six-step process led by the Safety and Environmental Protection Department with the participation of the Strategy Planning Department, the Finance Department and each business segment; the results are submitted to the Board’s Strategy and Sustainability Committee for review.

步骤	工作内容	参与部门
1. 风险与机遇识别	按物理风险（急性、慢性）与转型风险（政策法规、技术、市场、声誉）分类，结合业务暴露识别气候相关风险与机遇清单	安全环保部、战略规划部、各业务板块
2. 情景设定	选取不少于两个代表性情景，分别为有序转型的低排放情景与高排放情景，明确各情景下的政策、技术与温升参数	战略规划部、安全环保部
3. 暴露与脆弱性分析	将生产基地与电站按地理位置、海拔、气候带、能耗结构、客户结构映射至各情景	安全环保部、各业务板块
4. 影响评估	采用定性分析方式，评估各风险对收入、成本、资产价值、融资能力的传导路径与影响方向，对可货币化的重点项目辅以定量测算	财务部、各业务板块
5. 重要性排序	按发生可能性与财务影响程度打分排序，识别最重大风险	战略规划部、财务部
6. 应对与披露	制定应对措施、预算与责任分工，结果纳入公司风险管理清单并年度披露	董事会战略与可持续发展委员会
Step	Work Content	Departments Involved
1. Risk and opportunity identification	Identify climate-related risks and opportunities by category — physical (acute and chronic) and transition (policy and legal, technology, market, reputation) — based on business exposure	Safety and Environmental Protection Dept.; Strategy Planning Dept.; business segments
2. Scenario design	Select no fewer than two representative scenarios — an orderly low-emission transition scenario and a high-emission scenario — and define the policy, technology and temperature parameters of each	Strategy Planning Dept.; Safety and Environmental Protection Dept.
3. Exposure and vulnerability analysis	Map bases and power stations to each scenario by location, elevation, climate zone, energy mix and customer mix	Safety and Environmental Protection Dept.; business segments
4. Impact assessment	Use a qualitative approach to assess transmission pathways and direction of impact on revenue, cost, asset value and financing capacity, supplemented by quantitative estimates for material items that can be monetized	Finance Dept.; business segments
5. Materiality ranking	Score by likelihood and magnitude of financial impact, and identify the most significant risks	Strategy Planning Dept.; Finance Dept.
6. Response and disclosure	Set response measures, budgets and responsibilities; incorporate results into the enterprise risk register and disclose annually	Board Strategy and Sustainability Committee

三、情景设定与分析方式
3. Scenario Design and Analytical Approach

公司采用以下两个气候情景开展分析，其中情景一与《巴黎协定》温控目标路径一致，情景二为高排放路径。两个情景均覆盖 2030 年（短期）、2040 年（中期）与 2050 年（长期）三个时间节点。

The Company uses the following two climate scenarios. Scenario 1 is consistent with the temperature pathways of the Paris Agreement, while Scenario 2 is a high-emission pathway. Both cover three time horizons: 2030 (short term), 2040 (medium term) and 2050 (long term).

项目	情景一（≤2℃，有序转型）	情景二（>2℃，高排放）
参照情景	IPCC SSP1-2.6 / NGFS 净零 2050 有序转型情景	IPCC SSP5-8.5 / NGFS 当前政策情景
温升幅度	2100 年前控制在 2℃ 以内，力争 1.5℃	2100 年前约 3–4℃，本世纪中叶超过 2℃
碳价路径	中国全国碳市场扩容并逐步收紧，2030 年约 100 元/吨，2050 年升至 300 元以上	碳价长期低位，2030 年约 50 元/吨，2050 年不足 100 元/吨
政策假设	绿电交易、绿证与产品碳足迹核算规则全面落地，出口市场碳关税与电池法规趋严	国内政策节奏放缓，国际贸易碳壁垒加速且碎片化
物理参数	温升受控，极端天气频率温和上升	极端高温、强降水、台风与干旱频率与强度显著上升，海平面加速上升
分析方式	定性分析为主，对重大风险项目辅以定量测算	同左
Item	Scenario 1 (≤2℃, orderly transition)	Scenario 2 (>2℃, high emissions)
Reference scenario	IPCC SSP1-2.6 / NGFS Net Zero 2050 orderly transition	IPCC SSP5-8.5 / NGFS current policies
Temperature rise	Held below 2℃, pursuing 1.5℃, by 2100	About 3–4℃ by 2100; above 2℃ by mid-century
Carbon price path	China ETS expands and tightens; about RMB 100/t in 2030, above RMB 300/t by 2050	Carbon prices remain low; about RMB 50/t in 2030, below RMB 100/t by 2050
Policy assumptions	Green power trading, green certificates and product carbon footprint rules fully implemented; carbon border taxes and battery regulations tighten in export markets	Slower domestic policy action; international carbon barriers accelerate and fragment
Physical parameters	Contained warming; moderate rise in extreme weather frequency	Marked rise in frequency and intensity of extreme heat, heavy rainfall, typhoons and drought; accelerating sea-level rise
Approach	Predominantly qualitative, with quantitative estimates for material items	Same as left

公司本次分析采用定性分析方式，即通过情景打分矩阵评估各风险的影响方向与相对量级，不以货币化模型输出单一数值；仅对已具备可靠成本参数的重点项目（如碳价成本、改造投入）进行定点测算，并在第五章和第六章列示。

This analysis adopts a qualitative approach: a scenario scoring matrix is used to assess the direction and relative magnitude of each risk, rather than deriving single values from a monetized model. Point estimates are made only for selected items with reliable cost parameters (such as carbon price costs and retrofit investment), and are presented in Sections 5 and 6.

四、分析结果
4. Results of the Analysis

（一）转型风险
(1) Transition Risks

风险类别	具体风险	情景一（≤2℃）	情景二（>2℃）
政策法规	碳定价与碳市场覆盖范围扩大、产品碳足迹与能效标准趋严	高	中
政策法规	出口市场碳关税（如欧盟 CBAM）与电池法规要求	高	中高
技术	低能耗工艺、低碳材料替代带来的设备更新压力	中高	中
市场	客户与投资者对低碳产品与绿电使用比例要求提高	高	中
声誉	气候信息披露不充分引发评级下调与融资成本上升	中	低
Risk Type	Specific Risk	Scenario 1 (≤2℃)	Scenario 2 (>2℃)
Policy and legal	Carbon pricing and wider ETS coverage; tightening product carbon footprint and energy efficiency standards	High	Medium
Policy and legal	Carbon border taxes in export markets (e.g. EU CBAM) and battery regulation requirements	High	Medium-high
Technology	Pressure to replace equipment for low-energy processes and low-carbon material substitution	Medium-high	Medium
Market	Higher customer and investor expectations on low-carbon products and green electricity share	High	Medium
Reputation	Rating downgrades and higher financing costs from inadequate climate disclosure	Medium	Low

（二）物理风险
(2) Physical Risks

风险类别	具体风险	情景一（≤2℃）	情景二（>2℃）
急性	台风、暴雨洪涝对东南沿海生产基地与电站的破坏	中	高
急性	极端高温导致设备降容、限电与停机	中	高
慢性	海平面上升与滩涂盐渍化影响沿海厂区与光伏电站	低中	高
慢性	降水格局改变影响光伏辐照资源与发电量稳定性	低	中高
Risk Type	Specific Risk	Scenario 1 (≤2℃)	Scenario 2 (>2℃)
Acute	Damage to manufacturing bases and power stations in coastal areas from typhoons and rainstorms	Medium	High
Acute	Derating, curtailment and outages caused by extreme heat	Medium	High
Chronic	Sea-level rise and tidal flat salinization affecting coastal plants and PV stations	Low-medium	High
Chronic	Changed precipitation patterns affecting solar irradiation and generation stability	Low	Medium-high

（三）气候机遇
(3) Climate Opportunities

分析同时识别出三项主要机遇：一是零碳园区、绿电直连与工商业储能需求增长，公司具备“源、网、荷、储、数”一体化能力；二是低碳产品与产品碳足迹核算服务形成差异化竞争力，利于进入高标准市场；三是绿色融资渠道拓宽，可持续发展挂钩贷款与绿色债券可降低综合融资成本。

Three principal opportunities are also identified: first, growth in demand for zero-carbon parks, green power direct connection and commercial and industrial storage, where the Company has integrated source-grid-load-storage-digital capabilities; second, low-carbon products and carbon footprint accounting services creating differentiation that supports entry into high-standard markets; and third, broader green financing channels, where sustainability-linked loans and green bonds can lower overall financing costs.

五、最重大法规变化风险及财务影响
5. Most Significant Regulatory Change Risk and Financial Impact

经重要性排序，公司识别的最重大法规变化风险为：碳定价机制覆盖范围扩大与出口市场碳边境调节机制（碳关税）叠加带来的合规成本风险。该风险可能影响公司储能系统集成、光伏电池组件制造与智能配用电产品等相关出口及国内业务，在情景一下发生可能性与影响程度均最高。

Following materiality ranking, the most significant regulatory change risk is the compliance cost risk arising from the combination of an expanded carbon pricing regime and carbon border adjustment mechanisms (carbon border taxes) in export markets. The risk may affect the Company’s relevant domestic and export businesses, including energy storage system integration, PV cell and module manufacturing and smart power distribution, and ranks highest in both likelihood and magnitude under Scenario 1.

（一）财务影响
(1) Financial Impact

财务影响路径	影响说明
营业成本上升	自有生产基地外购电力与化石燃料被纳入碳定价范围后，需为未履约部分购买配额；按情景一 2030 年碳价约 100 元/吨估算，若年度排放量的 30% 需通过购买配额履约，年度新增成本约为年度排放量（吨）× 100 元 × 30%，以基准年经鉴证排放量为计算基础。
出口产品关税成本	随着欧盟CBAM机制实施及未来可能的适用范围扩大，公司相关出口业务可能面临新增碳成本与合规要求。在相关产品被纳入适用范围的情景下，假设出口成本增加1%–3%。
合规与核算成本	产品碳足迹核算、第三方核查、碳管理信息系统建设等新增管理成本，预计每年 150 万–300 万元。
资产减值风险	高碳排放工艺相关设备可能提前淘汰，形成固定资产减值或加速折旧。
融资成本	气候信息披露不充分或转型进度落后可能影响绿色融资资格，融资成本上升 10–30 个基点。
Financial Impact Pathway	Deion
Higher operating costs	Once purchased electricity and fossil fuels at Company-operated bases fall within carbon pricing, allowances must be purchased for the uncovered portion. Assuming a 2030 carbon price of about RMB 100/t under Scenario 1, if 30% of annual emissions must be covered by purchased allowances, annual incremental cost is annual emissions (t) × RMB 100 × 30%, calculated on the assured base-year emissions.
Export tariff costs	With the implementation of the EU CBAM and its possible future expansion, the Company’s relevant exports may face additional carbon costs and compliance requirements. If relevant products are brought within its scope, an indicative 1%–3% increase in export costs is assumed.
Compliance and accounting costs	New management costs for product carbon footprint accounting, third-party verification and carbon management information systems are estimated at RMB 1.5–3 million per year.
Asset impairment risk	Equipment associated with high-emission processes may be retired early, leading to impairment or accelerated depreciation.
Financing costs	Inadequate climate disclosure or lagging transition progress may affect eligibility for green financing, raising financing costs by 10–30 basis points.

（二）影响时间范围
(2) Time Horizon

该风险的影响呈阶段性释放：短期（2026–2030 年）影响集中在出口业务成本与合规管理成本以国内碳市场扩围和欧盟CBAM适用规则实施及可能的范围扩大为主，在相关出口产品适用时影响出口业务成本与合规管理成本；中期（2031–2040 年）免费配额基本取消、碳价进入快速上行通道，影响扩大至全部自有运营场所的履约成本；长期（2041–2050 年）碳价高位运行，高碳工艺资产面临淘汰，影响体现为资产减值与结构性成本上升。综合判断，该风险的主要财务影响期为 2028–2040 年。

The impact of this risk materializes in stages. In the short term (2026–2030), the expansion of China’s ETS, implementation of applicable EU CBAM rules and potential expansion of its coverage are key developments, with export and compliance costs affected where relevant products become subject to CBAM. In the medium term (2031–2040), free allocation is largely eliminated and carbon prices enter a rapid upward phase, extending the impact to compliance costs across all Company-operated sites. In the long term (2041–2050), carbon prices remain high, carbon-intensive assets face retirement, and the impact manifests as asset impairment and structural cost increases. Overall, the principal financial impact period is 2028–2040.

（三）应对成本计算
(3) Cost of Response to Risk

应对措施	应对成本（万元）	计算依据
厂区屋顶光伏与 BIPV 建设	12,000	按新增装机 40MW、单位投资 3 元/W 估算，年发电约 4,000 万千瓦时，可覆盖自有用电的 25%–30%
节能改造与能效提升	6,000	按空压、制冷、烘干等重点工序改造，年节电量约 1,200 万千瓦时，投资回收期 3–4 年
碳管理信息系统与核算体系	1,500	含系统建设 800 万元、产品碳足迹核算与第三方核查 700 万元（五年）
绿电交易与绿证采购溢价	3,000	按年采购绿电 1 亿千瓦时、溢价 0.03 元/千瓦时、五年累计估算
合计	22,500	占同期预计营业收入的约 0.9%，年均约 4500 万元
Measure	Cost of Response (RMB 10k)	Basis of Calculation
Rooftop PV and BIPV	12,000	Based on 40 MW of new capacity at RMB 3/W; annual generation of about 40 million kWh, covering 25%–30% of own electricity use
Energy-saving retrofit and efficiency	6,000	Retrofit of compressed air, cooling and drying processes; annual electricity savings of about 12 million kWh, payback in 3–4 years
Carbon management IT system and accounting	1,500	RMB 8 million for system build plus RMB 7 million over five years for product carbon footprint accounting and third-party verification
Green power trading and certificate premium	3,000	Annual purchase of 100 million kWh of green power at a premium of RMB 0.03/kWh over five years
Total	22,500	About 0.9% of projected revenue over the period, or about RMB 45 million per year

应对收益方面，上述措施预计每年减少外购电力约 5,200 万千瓦时，折减排放约 2.9 万吨二氧化碳当量，按情景一2030年碳价100元/吨及30%排放量需购买配额的假设，可规避配额购买成本约87万元/年；同时通过绿电使用降低相关出口产品隐含碳排放，并在适用碳边境调节要求时减少相应成本。

In terms of benefits, these measures are expected to reduce purchased electricity by about 52 million kWh per year, cutting emissions by about 29,000 tCO2e; at the assumed 2030 carbon price of RMB 100/tCO2e under Scenario 1 and with 30% of emissions requiring purchased allowances, this corresponds to approximately RMB 0.87 million in avoided allowance costs per year. Green electricity use also reduces the embedded emissions of relevant export products and may reduce carbon border adjustment costs where applicable.

六、最重大物理风险及财务影响
6. Most Significant Physical Risk and Financial Impact

经重要性排序，公司识别的最重大物理风险为：台风与暴雨洪涝等极端天气对东南沿海生产基地及新能源电站造成的急性物理风险。公司主要生产基地与大量自持光伏、风电、储能电站位于江苏沿海、安徽及东南沿海地区，处于台风影响路径与暴雨洪涝高风险区，情景二下该风险发生频率与强度显著上升。

Following materiality ranking, the most significant physical risk is the acute physical risk posed by extreme weather such as typhoons and rainstorms to manufacturing bases and new energy stations along the southeast coast. The Company’s main manufacturing bases and a large number of owned PV, wind and storage stations are located in coastal Jiangsu, Anhui and the southeast coastal region, within typhoon tracks and high flood-risk areas, and the frequency and intensity of this risk rise markedly under Scenario 2.

（一）财务影响
(1) Financial Impact

财务影响路径	影响说明
固定资产损失	厂房、屋顶光伏、储能电站设备受风灾水毁，形成固定资产报废与修复支出；单次中等强度台风造成的直接损失估计在 500 万–2,000 万元区间。
营业中断损失	生产基地停工与电站停运导致的产量与发电量损失，按单个基地停产 5–10 天估算，影响营业收入 1%–2%。
发电量下降	极端天气影响辐照与风速稳定性，电站利用小时数下降，直接减少发电收入。
保险费率上升	气候风险敞口上升推高财产险与营业中断险费率，保险成本预计上升 15%–30%。
运维成本增加	灾后抢修、加固与巡检频次提高，运维支出相应上升。
Financial Impact Pathway	Deion
Fixed asset losses	Plants, rooftop PV and storage station equipment damaged by wind and flood, resulting in write-offs and repair expenditure; direct losses from a single moderate typhoon are estimated at RMB 5–20 million.
Business interruption losses	Output and generation losses from plant shutdowns and station outages; assuming 5–10 days of shutdown at a single base, this affects 1%–2% of revenue.
Lower generation	Extreme weather affects irradiation and wind stability, reducing station utilization hours and directly cutting generation revenue.
Higher insurance premiums	Rising climate exposure pushes up property and business interruption insurance rates, with insurance costs expected to rise by 15%–30%.
Higher O&M costs	Post-disaster repair, reinforcement and more frequent inspections raise maintenance expenditure.

（二）影响时间范围
(2) Time Horizon

该风险为持续性风险，贯穿短、中、长期。短期（2026–2030 年）以偶发性台风暴雨事件冲击为主，影响表现为单次事件的损失与停产；中期（2031–2040 年）随情景二温升加剧，事件频率与强度上升，年均损失呈上升趋势，保险成本进入持续上行通道；长期（2041–2050 年）沿海厂区面临海平面上升与盐渍化的叠加影响，可能触及资产重大改造或迁址决策。综合判断，该风险的主要财务影响期为 2026–2040 年，且情景二下的累计损失显著高于情景一。

This risk is continuous and spans all three horizons. In the short term (2026–2030) it manifests mainly as occasional typhoon and rainstorm events, with losses and shutdowns on a per-event basis. In the medium term (2031–2040), as warming intensifies under Scenario 2, event frequency and intensity rise, average annual losses trend upward and insurance costs enter a sustained upward path. In the long term (2041–2050), coastal plants face the combined effects of sea-level rise and salinization, potentially triggering major asset retrofit or relocation decisions. Overall, the principal financial impact period is 2026–2040, and cumulative losses under Scenario 2 are materially higher than under Scenario 1.

（三）应对成本计算
(3) Cost of Response to Risk

应对措施	应对成本（万元）	计算依据
厂区防洪排涝与结构加固	4,500	按沿海三个生产基地加高防汛墙、增设排水泵站、屋面与设备基础加固，单基地约 1,500 万元
电站抗风设计与灾备	3,000	按沿海及台风影响区电站支架加固、组件抗风等级提升、备品备件储备，覆盖装机约 1.2GW
气象监测与预警系统	800	含气象数据服务、电站智能巡检无人机与在线监测终端
保险安排优化	1,200	按五年保费增量估算，通过集中投保与风险自留结构优化对冲费率上升
灾后应急与业务连续性	1,000	含应急预案演练、备用产能安排与关键设备储备
合计	10,500	占同期预计营业收入的约 0.4%，年均约 2,100 万元
Measure	Cost of Response (RMB 10k)	Basis of Calculation
Flood control, drainage and structural reinforcement	4,500	Raising flood walls, adding drainage pump stations and reinforcing roofs and equipment foundations at three coastal bases, at about RMB 15 million per base
Wind-resistant design and disaster preparedness for stations	3,000	Reinforcing mounts, upgrading module wind resistance and holding spares for stations in typhoon-affected areas, covering about 1.2 GW
Meteorological monitoring and early warning	800	Meteorological data services, inspection drones and online monitoring terminals
Optimized insurance arrangement	1,200	Estimated five-year premium increment, using centralized placement and optimized retention structure to offset rate increases
Emergency response and business continuity	1,000	Emergency drills, back-up capacity arrangements and critical equipment reserves
Total	10,500	About 0.4% of projected revenue over the period, or about RMB 21 million per year

应对收益方面，上述措施预计可将单次中等强度台风造成的直接损失降低 40%–50%，并将因灾停产时间压缩至 3 天以内，相应减少营业中断损失；同时抗风与防洪能力的提升有助于维持保险费率稳定，并满足客户与金融机构对资产韧性的审查要求。

In terms of benefits, these measures are expected to reduce direct losses from a single moderate typhoon by 40%–50% and to shorten weather-related shutdowns to within three days, correspondingly reducing business interruption losses; stronger wind and flood resilience also helps keep insurance rates stable and meets customer and financier requirements on asset resilience.

七、治理安排与后续工作
7. Governance and Next Steps

气候风险纳入公司整体风险管理体系，由董事会战略与可持续发展委员会监督，董事会每年至少一次将气候相关议题列入会议议程。安全环保部负责人负责统筹公司气候相关风险与机遇的识别、评估和管理。财务部负责财务影响测算，各业务板块负责落实应对措施。本分析至少每年更新一次，发生重大气候变化相关政策调整、重大极端天气事件或重大投资决策时启动专项更新。公司将在年度可持续发展报告中披露分析进展、风险变化及应对措施执行情况。

Climate risk is integrated into the Company’s enterprise risk management system, overseen by the Board’s Strategy and Sustainability Committee. Climate-related issues are scheduled on the Board of Directors' agenda at least annually. The Head of the Safety and Environmental Protection Department is responsible for coordinating the identification, assessment and management of the Company's climate-related risks and opportunities. The Finance Department is responsible for quantifying financial impacts and each business segment is responsible for implementing response measures. This analysis is updated at least annually, and a dedicated update is triggered by major climate policy changes, significant extreme weather events or major investment decisions. Progress of the analysis, changes in risk and implementation of response measures are disclosed in the annual sustainability report.

下一阶段，公司将逐步提升定量分析能力，建立分基地、分电站的排放与气象数据基础，为关键风险项目引入货币化模型与压力测试，并探索将气候因素纳入投资决策与资产估值的正式程序。

In the next phase the Company will progressively strengthen its quantitative capabilities by building site-level and station-level emissions and meteorological datasets, introducing monetized models and stress testing for key risk items, and exploring formal procedures for incorporating climate factors into investment decisions and asset valuation.

Linyang Energy丨Climate Risk Assessment and Financial Impact Analysis

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